Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH): Valuation Analysis
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All figures in US$; $mm unless stated. The valuation is in the model's DCF, Sensitivity, Comps and Valuation Summary tabs, which link live to the base-case projections.
1. Executive summary
We value CELH at $31 per share. This is a 50/40/10 blend of a discounted cash flow, trading comparables and precedent transactions. It is 9% above the current price and 27% below the $42 street consensus target, so we initiate at HOLD.
| Method | Low | Base | High | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF – perpetuity growth (WACC ±0.5%, g ±0.5%) | $27.5 | $31.1 | $35.9 | 50% |
| Trading comparables (EV/EBITDA and P/E, selected range) | $24.8 | $30.6 | $36.4 | 40% |
| Precedent transactions (EV / LTM sales) | $28.4 | $35.0 | $41.6 | 10% |
| Weighted fair value | $26.5 | $31.3 | $36.7 | 100% |
The stock has fallen 53% over the past 52 weeks. Two parts of the business are now moving in opposite directions:
- What works: Alani Nu has grown into a second billion-dollar brand, with a 1H26 run-rate of $1.46bn and 8.7% US share. The PepsiCo Captaincy gives the portfolio about 20% of US energy-drink dollar share.
- What doesn't: the flagship CELSIUS brand is shrinking. Its revenue fell 11.7% in 2Q26 because of SKU cuts, trade investment and weakness in the club channel. Gross margin also fell to 48% from 51-52% because of aluminium costs and the shift to direct-store-delivery (DSD) through PepsiCo.
At $28.36 the market is discounting roughly 2.2% perpetual growth on our base-case cash flows (reverse DCF). It is also paying 11.7x LTM adjusted EBITDA, about in line with the 11.1x peer median. In our view that is fair for a business that grows revenue about 7% a year in our base case but has weaker quality signals.
The risk/reward is balanced. Our scenario values range from $22 (bear) to $40 (bull) on the DCF, and the probability-weighted blended value is $31.2.
2. Discounted cash flow analysis
2.1 Cash flows
The DCF discounts base-case unlevered free cash flow from the model. To avoid double-counting cash already received, we anchor on the 30-Jun-2026 balance sheet:
- FY26E UFCF: $459.9mm. Of this, $284.2mm was already realised in 1H26. That figure is 1H26 operating cash flow of $296.3mm, less capex of $25.0mm, plus after-tax net interest of $12.9mm, all derived from the 10-Q and TTM data.
- Stub period: only the 2H26E residual of $175.6mm is discounted.
- Discounting: cash flows use a mid-period convention from 30-Jun-26. Enterprise value is then rolled forward 0.29 years to the 13-Oct-26 valuation date at the WACC.
| $mm | 2H26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (full year) | 3,141.8 | 3,354.5 | 3,587.6 | 3,807.9 | 4,015.5 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (full year) | 718.5 | 816.8 | 918.5 | 1,002.7 | 1,057.1 |
| Unlevered FCF (full year) | 459.9 | 584.2 | 635.7 | 697.9 | 733.1 |
| UFCF discounted | 175.6 | 584.2 | 635.7 | 697.9 | 733.1 |
| Discount period (years) | 0.25 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| PV at 10.2% | 171.4 | 530.1 | 523.4 | 521.5 | 497.1 |
How UFCF is built: - Start: GAAP EBIT, taxed at 23%. - Add back: D&A, plus the non-cash amortisation of PepsiCo-related deferred costs. - Deduct: capex (about 1.5% of revenue) and the change in working capital. - Stock-based compensation: treated as a real cost and not added back. - Distributor buyouts: FY26E includes about $264mm of Alani Nu distributor buyout payments, largely in 1H26. That is why the FY26 UFCF margin (14.6%) is below the run-rate (17-18%).
2.2 Weighted average cost of capital – 10.2%
| Component | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free rate | 5.19% | 10-yr UST, 12-Oct-2026 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.0% | Mid-point of 4.5-5.5% |
| Beta | 1.00 | 5-yr monthly (S&P Global) |
| Company-specific premium | 1.0% | CELSIUS brand decline, ~60% of revenue via PepsiCo, integration of two acquisitions |
| Cost of equity | 11.2% | |
| Cost of debt (pre-/post-tax) | 6.75% / 5.2% | SOFR-based term loan after Oct-25 repricing |
| Cost of convertible preferred | 7.0% | 5% dividend plus value of the conversion option |
| Capital weights (E / P / D) | 79% / 13% / 7% | Market values: $7,176mm / $1,209mm / $675mm |
| WACC | 10.2% |
The high WACC for a beverage company is mostly the risk-free rate: the 10-year Treasury is above 5%, its highest level since 2007. The 1% company-specific premium is a judgement call, and Table 1 shows its sensitivity. Removing it lowers WACC to about 9.4% and adds about $4 per share.
2.3 Terminal value and equity bridge
| $mm | Perpetuity (base) | Exit multiple (cross-check) |
|---|---|---|
| Terminal assumption | g = 3.0% | 11.0x FY30E adj. EBITDA |
| Terminal value (end-FY30) | 10,487 | 11,628 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,774 | 7,511 |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | 2,244 | 2,244 |
| EV at 30-Jun-26 | 9,018 | 9,755 |
| Terminal value % of EV | 75% | 77% |
| EV at valuation date (× 1.028) | 9,273 | 10,028 |
| + Cash (30-Jun-26) | 631 | 631 |
| − Term loan | (675) | (675) |
| − Remaining distributor fees | (9) | (9) |
| Equity value (common + preferred) | 9,221 | 9,976 |
| − Series B preferred claim (not converted) | (585) | (585) |
| ÷ Shares (253.0mm common + 2.5mm dilutive + 22.0mm Series A as-converted) | 277.5mm | 277.5mm |
| Value per share | $31.1 | $33.8 |
Treatment of PepsiCo's convertible preferred. This is the main structural point in the bridge, and the model handles it automatically:
- Series A ($550mm stated value, 22.0mm shares, converts at $25.00) is treated as converted whenever value per share is above $25. That is the case in every base-case output.
- Series B ($585mm stated value, 11.3mm shares, converts at $51.75) is out of the money and is deducted as a $585mm fixed claim.
Ignoring the preferred, as some screens do (for example, a reported EV of $7.2bn), would overstate value per share by about $5 ($36.1 vs $31.1).
Terminal value checks: - Implied multiple: the perpetuity terminal value implies 9.9x FY30E adjusted EBITDA, a discount to today's 11.1x peer median. That fits a mid-single-digit grower in 2030. - Exit-multiple method: 11.0x implies 3.7% perpetual growth. - Share of EV: terminal value is 75% of EV, slightly above the usual 70% guide. That is because FCF is still ramping through FY27 after the integration year.
2.4 Sensitivity
Table 1 – value per share: WACC vs terminal growth (perpetuity)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | 34.5 | 37.0 | 39.8 | 43.2 | 47.4 |
| 9.2% | 32.0 | 34.1 | 36.5 | 39.3 | 42.6 |
| 9.7% | 29.8 | 31.6 | 33.6 | 35.9 | 38.7 |
| 10.2% | 27.8 | 29.4 | 31.1 | 33.1 | 35.4 |
| 10.7% | 26.1 | 27.5 | 29.0 | 30.7 | 32.7 |
| 11.2% | 24.6 | 25.8 | 27.1 | 28.6 | 30.3 |
| 11.7% | 23.1 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 26.7 | 28.2 |
Table 2 – value per share: WACC vs exit multiple (FY30E adjusted EBITDA)
| WACC \ multiple | 8.0x | 9.5x | 11.0x | 12.5x | 14.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | 27.2 | 31.1 | 35.1 | 39.0 | 43.0 |
| 10.2% | 26.3 | 30.1 | 33.8 | 37.6 | 41.4 |
| 11.2% | 25.4 | 29.0 | 32.7 | 36.3 | 40.0 |
Table 3 – value per share: terminal growth vs terminal-year UFCF margin (base WACC)
| g \ FY30E UFCF margin | 15.3% | 16.8% | 18.3% | 19.8% | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5% | 25.6 | 27.5 | 29.4 | 31.3 | 33.3 |
| 3.0% | 27.1 | 29.1 | 31.2 | 33.2 | 35.3 |
| 3.5% | 28.7 | 31.0 | 33.2 | 35.4 | 37.6 |
Table 4 – DCF by operating scenario (base WACC and g): Bull $39.7, Base $31.1, Bear $22.1. The exit-multiple method gives $43.3 / $33.8 / $23.9.
The DCF is more sensitive to the operating case than to the discount rate. Bull to bear spans $18 per share, while WACC ±1% spans about $8. Whether the CELSIUS brand stabilises and gross margin returns to the low 50s matters more than the WACC.
3. Comparable companies analysis
3.1 Peer selection
We picked eight US-listed beverage and better-for-you consumer peers:
- Monster Beverage (MNST): the closest pure-play energy peer.
- PepsiCo (PEP): CELH's distributor, Captaincy partner and preferred holder.
- Coca-Cola (KO): distributes Monster and owns BodyArmor.
- Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP): owns GHOST energy.
- Vita Coco (COCO): a high-growth, asset-light better-for-you beverage brand.
- Primo Brands (PRMB): a US beverage business with DSD exposure.
- BellRing Brands (BRBR) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL): functional nutrition brands that recently de-rated on slowing growth, which is the risk facing CELH.
KDP's LTM multiples are excluded from the statistics. Its FY26 consensus consolidates JDE Peet's, so LTM EBITDA and EV are not like-for-like.
3.2 Trading multiples (market data 6-12 Oct 2026)
| Company | Ticker | Mkt cap ($bn) | EV ($bn) | EV/Rev LTM | EV/Rev NTM | EV/EBITDA LTM | P/E NTM | NTM rev growth | EBITDA margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monster Beverage | MNST | 85.7 | 82.4 | 8.9x | 7.9x | 28.1x | 34.3x | 9.6% | 31.8% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | KDP | 44.6 | 76.6 | n.m. | 2.6x | n.m. | 13.2x | 13.8% | n.m. |
| PepsiCo | PEP | 172.6 | 213.3 | 2.2x | 2.1x | 11.1x | 14.7x | 2.5% | 19.5% |
| Coca-Cola | KO | 386.3 | 414.2 | 8.3x | 8.3x | 24.4x | 25.9x | 0.1% | 33.9% |
| Vita Coco | COCO | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4.3x | 3.3x | 22.3x | 24.6x | 20.4% | 19.3% |
| BellRing Brands | BRBR | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.9x | 0.9x | 6.4x | 6.5x | 0.8% | 14.1% |
| Primo Brands | PRMB | 7.0 | 12.3 | 1.8x | 1.8x | 9.2x | 13.3x | 3.5% | 19.9% |
| Simply Good Foods | SMPL | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9x | 1.0x | 5.6x | 5.9x | (6.7%) | 15.6% |
| Maximum | 8.9x | 8.3x | 28.1x | 34.3x | 20.4% | 33.9% | |||
| 75th percentile | 6.3x | 4.4x | 23.3x | 24.9x | 10.6% | 25.8% | |||
| Median | 2.2x | 2.4x | 11.1x | 14.0x | 3.0% | 19.5% | |||
| 25th percentile | 1.4x | 1.6x | 7.8x | 11.5x | 0.7% | 17.5% | |||
| Minimum | 0.9x | 0.9x | 5.6x | 5.9x | (6.7%) | 14.1% | |||
| CELH (current) | CELH | 7.2 | 8.4* | 2.8x | 2.6x | 11.7x | 16.9x | 6.8% | 23.6% |
CELH EV includes the PepsiCo preferred: Series A at its as-converted market value and Series B at its $585mm stated value. CELH LTM figures run to Jun-26: revenue $3,047mm and company-defined adjusted EBITDA $719mm. NTM uses our base-case estimates.
3.3 Applying the multiples
The peer set splits into two groups:
- Scaled, high-quality brands (MNST, KO, COCO) trade at 22-28x EBITDA.
- De-rated or levered names (BRBR, SMPL, PRMB) trade at 5-9x.
Because of that split, the raw 25th-75th percentile range is too wide to use: $17-58 per share on EV/EBITDA and $19-42 on P/E. Instead we apply about a 20% premium to the peer medians. The premium reflects CELH's faster NTM revenue growth (6.8% vs 3.0%) and higher EBITDA margin (23.6% vs 19.5%). We still keep CELH far below MNST's 28x, because of the shrinking flagship brand and its reliance on one customer.
| Selected range | Low | Base | High | $ Low | $ Base | $ High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV / LTM adjusted EBITDA ($719mm) | 11.0x | 13.5x | 16.0x | $26.2 | $32.7 | $39.2 |
| P / NTM adjusted EPS ($1.68) | 14.0x | 17.0x | 20.0x | $23.5 | $28.5 | $33.5 |
| Trading comps value (average) | $24.8 | $30.6 | $36.4 |
4. Precedent transactions
| Date | Target / acquirer | EV ($mm) | EV / Sales | EV / EBITDA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb-25 | Alani Nu / Celsius | 1,650 (net) | 2.8x | 19.0x (12.0x with synergies) | $1.8bn gross including ~$150mm of tax assets |
| Nov-21 | BodyArmor / Coca-Cola | ~6,600 | 6.7x | n.a. | Goldman Sachs estimate; peak-cycle 40%+ grower |
| Mar-25 | Poppi / PepsiCo | 1,650 (net) | n.a. | n.a. | $1.95bn including $300mm of tax benefits; revenue undisclosed |
| Oct-24 | GHOST (60%) / KDP | ~1,650 implied | n.a. | n.a. | $990mm for 60%; remaining 40% in 2028 |
| Mar-20 | Rockstar / PepsiCo | 3,850 | n.a. | n.a. | Declining brand; sales undisclosed |
Few of these deals disclosed the target's revenue, so this method gets only a 10% weight.
- Most relevant marker: Alani Nu, at 2.8x sales. It is in the same category, from the same period, and CELH itself was the buyer.
- Range used: 2.8x / 3.4x / 4.0x LTM sales, giving $28.4 / $35.0 / $41.6. The 3.4x base embeds a roughly 20% control premium over CELH's current 2.8x.
- Most logical acquirer: PepsiCo. It distributes the brands, holds the convertible preferred and has two board seats. However, there is no sign of a bid.
5. Valuation reconciliation
5.1 Football field ($ per share)
| Range | Low | High | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF – perpetuity (WACC ±0.5%, g ±0.5%) | 27.5 | 35.9 | 31.1 |
| DCF – exit multiple (WACC ±0.5%, 9.5-12.5x) | 29.5 | 38.3 | 33.8 |
| DCF – bear to bull scenario | 22.1 | 39.7 | 31.1 |
| Trading comps – selected range | 24.8 | 36.4 | 30.6 |
| Trading comps – EV/LTM EBITDA, peer 25th-75th | 17.3 | 57.9 | 26.5 |
| Trading comps – P/NTM EPS, peer 25th-75th | 19.3 | 41.8 | 23.5 |
| Precedent transactions (2.8-4.0x sales) | 28.4 | 41.6 | 35.0 |
| Street price targets | 26.0 | 64.0 | 42.2 |
| Current price / our target | 28.36 / 31 |
Most of the core ranges cluster at $25-40, centred around $31. The street's $42 average target is above the top of every intrinsic range except the bull DCF and the wide peer percentiles. We think consensus has not fully priced in the reset of the CELSIUS brand.
5.2 Weighting rationale
- DCF (50%): this is the main method. It best captures the integration margin rebuild and FCF conversion. The business is asset-light, so capex is about 1.5% of revenue and cash conversion is high.
- Trading comps (40%): a market cross-check. We weight it below the DCF because the peer set splits into two groups.
- Precedents (10%): these include a control premium and few deals disclosed the target's revenue. There is also no current sign of an acquisition.
5.3 Scenario-weighted value
| Bull (25%) | Base (50%) | Bear (25%) | Probability-weighted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR FY25A-30E | 13.1% | 9.8% | 5.6% | |
| FY30E adj. EBITDA margin | 29.0% | 26.3% | 22.9% | |
| FY27E adj. EPS | $2.05 | $1.74 | $1.34 | |
| DCF value | $39.7 | $31.1 | $22.1 | $31.0 |
| Blended fair value | $36.5 | $31.3 | $25.6 | $31.2 |
The probability-weighted value of $31.2 confirms the $31 target. Upside and downside around it are roughly symmetrical: +$5 in the bull case and −$6 in the bear case.
5.4 Sanity checks
| Check | Result | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Terminal value % of EV | 75% | Slightly high; FCF is still ramping after the integration year |
| Implied exit multiple in perpetuity TV | 9.9x | Below the 11.1x peer median; conservative for 2030 |
| Implied growth in the exit-multiple TV | 3.7% | Upper end of a reasonable range |
| EV / LTM adj. EBITDA at target | 12.8x | About 15% premium to the 11.1x peer median; MNST is at 28x |
| P / NTM adj. EPS at target | 18.5x | vs 14.0x peer median and 34x for MNST |
| Reverse DCF at current price | 2.2% perpetual growth | The market already discounts our base-case cash flows at a low terminal growth rate |
| 12-month implied return | +9.3% | Inside our HOLD band (−10% to +15%) |
6. Investment recommendation
Rating: HOLD | 12-month price target: $31 | Implied upside: 9.3%
Our target is set on the weighted fair value of $31.3, rounded and not rolled forward. It implies 12.8x LTM adjusted EBITDA and 18.5x NTM adjusted EPS.
Why not Buy: - The flagship brand is shrinking. CELSIUS brand revenue fell 11.7% in 2Q26 and 4% in 1H26. Its US dollar share slipped from 10.9% to 9.5% in six months. - The fix will take time. Management's SKU-optimisation programme raises productivity per distribution point (+16% sequentially), but the cooler and cold-vault space gains it targets take quarters to show up in sales. - Margin recovery is still unproven. Gross margin needs to get back to the low 50s against aluminium inflation and a higher DSD mix, which carries more billbacks. - High dependence on one counterparty. PepsiCo is the distributor, the Captaincy partner and a preferred holder with two board seats. That concentration (60% of 1H26 revenue) warrants a discount to MNST.
Why not Sell: - The valuation is undemanding. The stock trades at about the peer median EV/EBITDA, the reverse DCF implies only 2.2% perpetual growth, and the TTM FCF yield is about 6%. - Alani Nu is a real second growth engine. It is growing over 50% at retail with 8.7% US share. - The capital return is meaningful. Repurchases were $124.5mm in 1H26, and net leverage is effectively zero ($675mm of debt against $631mm of cash).
7. Key catalysts
- 3Q26 results (5-Nov-2026): the first full quarter after the Rockstar integration. Watch CELSIUS brand shipments against depletions and whether gross margin moves above 48%. A beat with margin expansion would support the bull case.
- Spring 2027 shelf resets: these test whether SKU optimisation turns into the cooler and cold-vault space management targeted. Retail-tracked (Circana) share of CELSIUS stabilising around 9.5-10% would be the signal.
- Gross margin rebuild through FY27: cost-downs (orbit model, freight, raw materials), price-pack architecture and the end of integration costs. Our base case is 50.0% in FY27E. Each 100bp is worth about $34mm of EBITDA, roughly $1.6 per share at 13.5x.
- Alani Nu growth in PepsiCo DSD: the brand gets a full year of PepsiCo distribution from 1-Dec-2025. Holding double-digit growth through 2H26, which has a tough comparison because of the 2H25 load-in, would de-risk the base case.
- Capital allocation and PepsiCo: continued buybacks (we assume $225mm in FY26E). There is also optionality in PepsiCo's strategic intentions, given its board seats and preferred stake.
8. Key risks to the price target
Downside
- CELSIUS share loss continues (high probability; about −$6 per share, bear case). Competition from Monster, GHOST, private label and cannibalisation by Alani Nu could keep the brand shrinking into 2027.
- Commodity and tariff inflation (medium). Aluminium is the swing factor. Gross margin stuck around 48.5-49% (bear case) lowers EBITDA by about $60mm a year by FY28, before any volume effect.
- PepsiCo concentration (low probability, high impact). A dispute over Captaincy execution or a shift in PepsiCo's priorities would hit about 60% of revenue.
- Legal and one-off costs. These include the $24.6mm litigation accrual in 1Q26 and the remaining distributor transition costs.
Upside
- Strategic bid (low probability; +25-45%). PepsiCo is the natural acquirer. Precedent multiples imply $35-42 per share.
- Faster CELSIUS recovery and margin beat (medium; about +$8 per share, bull case). A return to mid-single-digit growth plus about a 52.5% gross margin supports $36-40.
Sources
- Celsius Holdings, FY2025 Form 10-K, 4Q25 earnings release and 2Q26 earnings release (SEC EDGAR)
- Celsius Holdings, Alani Nu acquisition release, 20-Feb-2025
- Series B terms: Celsius 8-K summary, Aug-2025
- Peer and CELH market data, consensus and beta: stockanalysis.com / S&P Global (CELH statistics, CELH forecast; peer pages for MNST, KDP, PEP, KO, COCO, BRBR, PRMB, SMPL), accessed 13-Oct-2026
- 10-year Treasury yield: Mortgage News Daily, 12-Oct-2026
- Precedents: BevNET – Coke acquires BodyArmor; Brewbound – PepsiCo to acquire Poppi; Food Dive – KDP buys GHOST; PepsiCo – Rockstar acquisition
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